Suchergebnisse

This paper aims at modeling the conduct policy of the interest rate by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Brazil (COPOM), following methodologically a statistical framework developed by Engle & Russel (1998) and used by Hamilton & Jordà (2002) in studying the decisions of the Federal Reserve of the United States. The results, once we observe the period from January 2002 to July 2010 with a weekly frequency, suggest that COPOM is influenced by government expenditures and that it has a forward-looking behavior, holding onto the expectations of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the official inflation of the country. In addition to this relevant evidence in the discussion of the balance between fiscal and monetary policies in Brazil, Brazilian monetary authority theoretically possesses a behavior which is aligned to that observed in practice, though it presents a greater sensitivity to macroeconomic variations. ; Este artigo visa modelar a política de condução da taxa de juros pelo Comitê de Política Monetária do Banco Central do Brasil (COPOM), seguindo metodologicamente o arcabouço estatístico desenvolvido por Engle & Russel (1998) e utilizado por Hamilton & Jordà (2002) no estudo das decisões do Federal Reserve nos Estados Unidos. Os resultados obtidos, observando-se o período de janeiro de 2002 a julho de 2010 com frequência semanal, sugerem que o COPOM seja influenciado pelos gastos governamentais e que este possua um comportamento forward-looking, atendo-se às expectativas do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e da inflação oficial do país. Além desta evidência relevante na discussão sobre o equilíbrio entre políticas fiscal e monetária no Brasil, a autoridade monetária brasileira teoricamente possui um comportamento alinhado ao observado na prática, porém apresentando uma maior sensibilidade às variações macroeconômicas, reagindo mais frequentemente e em menor intensidade.

Purpose
This paper aims to address the discussion on the credit disbursement of US$28.6bn from Brazilian National Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES) to Brazilian state governments during the period from 2009 to 2014. They try to identify the main drivers of the credit allocation in both cross state and time.


Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a dynamic balanced panel to estimate the role of technical and socioeconomic variables.


Findings
The results suggest that the states' need for financing via BNDES exhibits neither inertial nor explosive behavior. The authors find an efficiency elasticity of this resource of 0.20. In addition, the impact of a positive change in the state fiscal status leads to an increase of 2.5 per cent in the indebtedness capacity. Finally, they find that wealthier states are more successful in demanding credit from BNDES.


Practical implications
This analysis of resource allocation is useful for modeling the determinants of international financial institutions as central planners. The authors also invite researchers to discuss the decision-making processes that characterize the federative pact in Brazil.


Originality/value
Although a burgeoning body of literature has examined the role of BNDES as a creditor institution for firms, its relationship with the public sector, in special subnational governments, has been rarely studied.

We add to the literature on financial system and development by proposing an empirical exercise to better understand the channels through which credit drivers are able or not to promote economic growth. Methodologically, we estimate an extend version in difference of Barro-style growth panel regression. We measure the individual impact on the Brazilian cross-state GDP growth from 2003 to 2017 of household credit, enterprise credit and government credit, controlling for exports, imports, years of schooling, current and capital government expenditures. We find that Brazilian cross-state growth depends more on the evolution of household credit than on credit to firms. We claim that regardless of the benefits due to household credit, we need to better understand the behavior of this insolvent economic growth driver, given its prominent role in the credit market. We also highlight the negative role played by government credit to GDP given by the significant elasticity of -0.87.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is discussing on cross-city empirical economic growth, by estimating an unbalanced dynamic panel for the most vulnerable region of Brazil.Design/methodology/approachThe authors propose including additional and specific sources of cross-city variation, enabling them to capture the essence and reality of this region. The sample selection is given by the solution of a trade-off on the number of cities and the available explanatory variables. Considering the final choice, the analysis is based on 6,452 observations extracted from a sample of 925 cities between 2009 and 2015. Reconciling the regional growth literature and this availability of observable data, the authors decide to explain cross-city real gross domestic product per capita in log, controlling for its lagged value besides 15 explanatory variables on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure.FindingsThis study uses growth drivers on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure. Considering 6,452 observations for the period from 2009 to 2015, this study finds a significant role played by the levels of education of formal workers, rural financing, real estate financing and FIRJAN indices (health and employment).Research limitations/implicationsA more comprehensive and complete understanding of cross-city variation, whether in the Northeast, in the North of the country or in other regions, involves the expansion of growth drivers in the model. Certainly, the impact of the industrial sector (not captured by the FIRJAN employment/income index), or programs and initiatives geared to technology, must be significant and positive. Despite the low market share, the insertion of microcredit data for informal, small business owners and more underserved families, can bring insights not measured in this article.Practical implicationsOn financial system and development: The results on the significant and positive coefficient of rural and real estate financing are fundamental in conducting public policies aimed at granting credit. On human capital: The expected and intuitive relevant role of education suggests that good policies that are implementable need to be looked for and replicated to other northeastern cities. The state of Ceará seems to be that benchmark to be followed by the other states.Social implicationsAnother public policy that needs to be strengthened so that the most vulnerable cities can grow is related to the partnership with the private sector in the expansion and maintenance of basic sanitation. In this context, the new Legal Framework for Basic Sanitation is an important step. Its main objective is to universalize and qualify the provision of services in the sector. Theoretically, it seems to be an important advance and this also unlocks the first big wave of investments.Originality/valueThe analysis aims to contribute to the recent studies on regional growth applied to Brazil. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is an innovative contribution, and the main differences between this paper and the others are the sample of cities, the period, the growth model and the estimation technique. For instance, Da Mataet al.(2005, 2007) explore population growth and its implications for economic dynamics and income generation among 123 urban agglomerations between 1970 and 2000. Alves (2021) studied slum growth in contemporary urbanization of households in 272 Brazilian cities from 1991 to 2010.

Abstract We add to the discussion on the transmission of business cycles, by modeling worldwide banking sector indices cycle synchronization, accounting for the time-varying and frequency-specific behavior of the variables. Based on the multiple coherence, partial coherence, partial phase-difference, and partial gain, we find regions of strong and significant coherency between NAFTA partners, and in the European core: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Concerning such trade blocs, we also find strong performance in the period 2010-2012 in all frequencies, a period characterized by the sovereign debt crisis in some European countries.

Este artigo agrega ao debate sobre a solvência do Regime Geral da Previdência Social (RGPS) no Brasil, um sistema de repartição simples cujos parâmetros divergem dos padrões internacionais em termos demográficos, econômicos e sociais. Seguindo principalmente a metodologia de Bohn (1998, 2007), evidencia-se, durante o período de janeiro de 1990 a dezembro de 2010, que o saldo previdenciário do RGPS apresenta quatro distintos regimes, sendo apenas um deles caracterizado como insolvente, durante abril de 1994 e outubro de 1997, possivelmente associado aos efeitos do advento da Lei nº 8.213/91. Ao contrário do que diversas análises apontam sobre a situação da previdência social brasileira, os resultados sugerem não ser explosiva a trajetória recente de déficits, sendo inclusive possível identificar uma melhoria a partir de outubro de 2006, em resposta ao encerramento da primeira fase do Censo Previdenciário e a criação do Super Simples. Apesar da preocupação da sociedade com o registro de sucessivos déficits mensais, a participação governamental neste regime tem representado parcelas menores do Produto Interno Bruto, sendo esta sinalização de solvência relevante na condução de políticas públicas associadas à previdência. Este cenário otimista, porém, não invalida a necessidade de reformas no sistema, tendo em vista a eficiência das intervenções do Governo no sentido de controlar o quadro deficitário do RGPS.